Now that the majority of free agency has passed and Chris Paul has been traded, we can start to take a look at the season. The Grizzlies are bringing everyone back and, according to the owner, are not trading O.J. Mayo this season. That may change, that may not change. I am willing to assume for now that the Grizzlies want to roll the dice all the way with this team and are willing to lose Mayo at the end of the season to see how it plays out. Losing Mayo for nothing would hurt, but signing Arthur to a reasonable extension is more important. We can talk about all those scenarios later as they play out because here is my bold prediction for this season: Western Conference Champions.

I see this team contending for a title this year. I think it is highly reasonable to expect (yes, I said expect) them to contend for the Western Conference title. We all saw what happened last year. Make it to the playoffs, get a decent match-up, and anything can happen. Anything. The biggest question mark for the Grizzlies, and every other team, this season is the schedule. It sounds like it is going to require youth and depth to navigate the season without a major catastrophe befalling a team. At least that is what most people are saying. I don’t think anyone knows for sure how teams are going to hold up during this schedule this season. But having a good mix of youth on your roster seems like a good recipe for these back-to-back-to-back sets and four-games-in-five-nights sets.

All that being said, I would think that experience, depth, and continuity are the three biggest factors for a team’s predicted success. The Grizzlies are now an experienced playoff caliber team. The Grizzlies are obviously pretty deep on the wings with Mayo, Allen, Gay, and Young. However, the playoffs exposed a weakness in depth at the point guard position. If Conley gets injured or runs into foul trouble, can Vazquez step up? How will Selby handle the NBA? What about this Pargo guy? The Grizzlies need a competent back up point guard who can run their half court offense. Vazquez obviously has the cojones department covered as well as running the fast break, but he struggled at times in half court sets. He will need to grow in that area for the Grizzlies to have sustained and consistent success this season. The Grizzlies have just a little more depth with their bigs. With Gasol, Randolph, and Arthur, the Grizzlies have a lot of talent. Getting one or two more warm bodies would be helpful. Any serious injury to either Randolph or Gasol would be a fatal blow to the Grizzlies anyway. Warm bodies would at least give the Grizzlies a chance to let their three bigs rest some during the season. It sounds like Haddadi will be back as well a possible Troy Murphy signing. Like I said above, the Grizzlies are bringing everyone back this year (sorry Ish Smith, you don’t count as everybody). The Grizzlies have experience, depth, and continuity covered. So, let’s start looking around the Western Conference and figure out this lockout shortened season.

In the Grizzlies own division, we have the NBA reigning champs. The Mavericks already look different without Tyson Chandler in the middle. If Haywood can step up in a big way, then the Mavs are a favorite to win the title. However, without Chandler’s defensive presence in the middle, the Mavs resort back to their usual M.O. They will win a lot of games, get a great seed, make a little noise in the playoffs, and then get eliminated. The Spurs are older, but still wise and crafty. If they can avoid a major injury to their big three, they should make the playoffs again. But they will get bounced early if they are matched up against another big frontline like the Grizzlies or the Lakers. The Hornets should, repeat, should take a giant step back as they begin their rebuilding process. I have them as a lottery team, probably one of the worst in the league after they drop Okafor and anyone else with a pulse not named Eric Gordon. The Rockets are always a wild card team. They could make some major roster moves during the season that change their odds, but I see them as just on the outside of the playoffs again. Their parts are greater than their sum.

In the Pacific Division, the two power teams are BOTH in L.A. The Clippers are young, super talented, and have crazy hype. They are eerily similar to the Philadelphia Eagles at this point. All we need is for Eric Bledsoe to call them the dream team, and we are set. If Chris Paul’s knee hold up and he can steer the Clippers into playing hard every possession, the Clippers will be a very difficult match up for most teams and a hard out in the playoffs. However, it literally all relies on Paul’s knee. Without Paul, this team looks like a more athletic version of the Rockets, just outside the playoffs. The Lakers also have the same issue. If Kobe’s knees hold up, then the Lakers should be ready for another run into the playoffs. The schedule could play havoc on the Lakers though, and it is conceivable, after the failed Gasol trade and new coach Mike Brown, to see the Lakers completely imploding. I think the Lakers are one of the most volatile teams to predict for this season. Phoenix, Golden State, and Sacramento are all nice teams that will give other teams fits at times, but none of them are making the playoffs.

In the Northwest Division, the Thunder are once again running away with the division. They are young, talented, and experienced. They match up well with any team in the league and have few weaknesses. Their major obstacle? Their own psyche. Can they mature some more and not make careless mistakes? Can Westbrook embrace his role as Robin to Durant’s Batman? If so, they are probably going to be the number one seed in the West this year. Of course, an argument could possibly be made that this team would be better off with a pass first point guard (hey there Steve Nash) and some more legitimate bigs to clog the paint. Denver and Portland are both fluctuating teams. They are similar to Houston in their parts are probably more than their sum. I have them both headed to the playoffs, but I could see one of them regressing drastically. Minnesota could make some noise. If Rubio can play the way Rubio was hyped to play, they could over take Denver or Portland for the 8^th seed in the West. The Jazz is so poorly constructed right now, they will probably be a top ten lottery team.

Predicted Western Conference Standings

1. Thunder
2. Mavericks
3. Lakers
4. Grizzlies
5. Spurs
6. Trailblazers
7. Clippers
8. Timberwolves
9. Nuggets
10. Rockets
11. Phoenix
12. Golden State
13. Sacramento
14. Jazz
15. Hornets